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On 7 August, US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he would impose a 100% tariff on chips, a move that could exacerbate the risk of price increases for essential goods such as electronics, automobiles, and home appliances that rely on processors. However, he also stated that companies producing chips in the United States would be exempt from import tariffs, saying, ‘If you produce in the United States, you won't have to pay tariffs.’ This statement was made during a meeting with Apple CEO Tim Cook in the Oval Office.

Over the past three months, Trump had temporarily exempted most electronic products from import tariffs. This tariff policy marks a significant departure from the plans under President Joe Biden's administration: Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022, providing over $50 billion in funding, tax credits, and other fiscal incentives to attract private investment and revive U.S. chip production; Trump opposes this strategy. Since taking office, he has consistently used tariffs to stimulate domestic production, betting that the threat of rising chip costs will force companies to establish factories domestically, despite the potential for this to squeeze corporate profits and drive up prices for related products.

Impact of tariff policies on businesses and markets

Corporate investment and stock price reactions: Since Trump returned to the White House in January this year, major tech companies have collectively committed to investing approximately $1.5 trillion in the United States, with Apple adding an additional $100 billion to its February commitment, bringing its total commitment to $600 billion. Investors interpreted the tariff exemptions as a positive for tech companies like Apple, with Apple's stock price rising 5% during regular trading hours on Wednesday and another 3% in after-hours trading after Trump announced that certain tech companies would be exempt from the latest tariffs (Cook expressed support for this decision). Additionally, shares of artificial intelligence chipmaker NVIDIA rose slightly in after-hours trading. The company has seen its market value increase by $1 trillion since the start of Trump's second term and has recently made significant commitments to the United States. Shares of struggling Intel also rose in after-hours trading. However, inquiries to NVIDIA and Intel have not yet been immediately responded to.

Industry reaction: The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the main trade organisation for the chip industry, declined to comment on Trump's latest tariff measures.

Current state of the chip industry and related questions

Market demand: According to data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organisation, global demand for chips continues to rise, with sales for the fiscal year ending in June increasing by 19.6%.

Potential Questions: The current question is whether the agreement brokered by Cook and Trump will exempt millions of iPhones produced in China and India from the tariffs already imposed by the United States, thereby alleviating the pressure on Apple to raise prices for its upcoming new models next month. Wall Street appears to be optimistic about this.

Additionally, during the COVID-19 pandemic, chip shortages led to rising car prices and exacerbated inflation.