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In the third quarter of 2025, the NAND Flash market will see a significant price increase, with low-capacity products of 512Gb and below expected to rise by more than 15%, while high-capacity products of 1Tb and above are expected to rise by 5% to 10%…
In the third quarter of 2025, the NAND Flash market will see a significant price increase, with low-capacity products of 512Gb and below expected to rise by more than 15%, while high-capacity products of 1Tb and above are expected to rise by 5% to 10%. This trend is mainly driven by factors such as original equipment manufacturers reducing production, supply and demand imbalances, and process upgrades, and is likely to continue into 2026.
1. Price Increase Magnitude and Current Prices
256Gb TLC Flash Wafer: Current price 2.75 USD per wafer (up approximately 32% from the beginning of the year).
512Gb TLC Flash Wafer: Current price 3.05 USD per wafer (increase of 15%-18%).
1Tb and above high-capacity products: Current price 5.60 USD/piece (increase of 5%-10%).
2. Core Reasons for Price Increases
Significant production cuts by original manufacturers: Since the second half of 2024, manufacturers such as Micron and SanDisk have reduced production capacity. Micron's Hiroshima plant has reduced NAND wafer production by 40%, and Western Digital's Yokkaichi plant has seen its production capacity utilisation rate drop to 65%.
Supply contraction for low-capacity products: Products below 512Gb have long been low-profit, making them a priority for production cuts, resulting in a sharp decline in supply.
Shift to QLC/PLC processes: Manufacturers are accelerating R&D on high-density technologies above 232 layers, reducing traditional TLC production capacity by 120,000 wafers per month.
Stable end-user demand: Smartphones (eMMC), IoT devices, and industrial control storage still rely on low-capacity NAND, with IoT procurement volumes increasing by 23% year-on-year in Q3.
3. Market Impact and Future Trends
Downstream manufacturers under pressure: The cost of 512GB SSD modules has increased by 3-5 dollars, and mobile phone brands have extended their safety stock cycle to 10 weeks.
Supply shortages may persist until 2026: Kioxia's new factory has delayed mass production, QLC yield rates are improving slowly, and low-capacity products will remain in short supply.
Conclusion
The NAND Flash market has officially entered a ‘declining volume, rising prices’ cycle, with low-capacity products driving price increases due to supply-demand imbalances. Downstream companies need to adjust their inventory strategies to address rising costs.
Time:2025-07-18
Time:2025-07-18
Time:2025-07-18
Time:2025-07-18
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